CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-07-01T21:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-07-01T21:12ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47248/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the North by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-07-02T00:06Z, following a data gap which ended at 2026-07-01T23:54Z. This CME is also seen to the North in SOHO LASCO C3 and to the Northeast in STEREO A COR2 following a data gap which ended at 2026-07-02T00:08Z. This CME is obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1. The source of this event is an M3.5 flare from Active Region 14479 (N15W32) which peaked at 2026-07-01T19:43Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Field line opening and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193 and GOES SUVI 284. Preliminarily closing as non-arrival; analysis is ongoing. | Arrival signature: Characterized by a reconfiguration of magnetic field components and other solar wind parameters beginning most clearly at 2026-07-04T12:00Z, following an enhancement from the previous interplanetary shock at 2026-07-03T11:17Z and CME arrival at 2026-07-03T18:45Z. At this start time, solar wind speeds jump from ~590 km/s to ~640 km/s and density rises from ~0.68p/cc to ~24.81p/cc. Starting at 2026-07-04T11:37Z a rise in temperature from ~65k Kelvin to ~441k Kelvin is observed. Starting around 2026-07-04T12:30Z, B_total temporarily drops from ~14nT to ~9.47nT, rising back to a peak 19.43nT by 2026-07-04T14:06Z. This third enhancement in the solar wind within this arrival signature starting at 2026-07-03T11:17Z is associated with the likely combined arrival of CMEs 2026-07-02T02:36Z and 2026-07-01T21:12Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-04T12:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-05T04:27Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.16667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -28.02 hour(s)
Difference: -16.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-07-05T16:01Z
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